Surprise

Nightmare of Devastating Surprise Embedded in Nature

Think of civilization as a living treasury of self-protective culture and technology developed to avoid devastating surprise.  Civilization maintains early warning systems, sponsors safer building practices, encourages an educated citizenry, builds hospitals, signs treaties, and shares sacred covenants in part to protect against destructive surprise.

The Most Devastating Surprise of the 20^th Century

Beginning in 1914, civilization suffered a catastrophe.  The First World War was arguably the most devastating surprise of the 20^th Century.  One-hundred million lives were lost.  Millions of lives were disrupted.  Everyone was surprised by the magnitude of the disaster.

War is Social Cancer

Cancer is a self-destructive malignancy in which abnormal cells multiply, spread and frequently kill their host.  Cancer is not contagious.

War is contagious.  Nobody saw it coming.  Shooting, blasting, stabbing, starving, and gassing became the order of the day in the best social circles.  Dozens of world leaders and royal families vanished from power.  Vast resources were wasted.  The ruinous war continued well into the 20^th century.  World War II was a second chapter.

World War I was a surprise attack by civilization against itself.

Twenty-First Century Global War

There were less than two billion people in 1911. Could the catastrophe have been avoided if civilization one-hundred years ago had sensed what was about to happen? 

Now there are more than seven billion people.  Our weapons are more powerful.  Is a self-inflicted global catastrophe lurking in our wings.  Is there anything we can do about it?